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BUY or SELL Recommendation on Citigroup
Citigroup
Citigroup (NYSE: C) Sept 17 close: $46.95
RECOMMENDATION: SELL
Strategy: Buy C=MJ January 2005 Puts Strike@50
Price to be calculated at the market open September 20 (C=MJ Sep-17 close @ $3.80)
OneChicago Single Stock Futures (C1C): C1C Z4 (Dec 04) $46.79
Among general reading, here is the material I used to make this decision: EasyStock Interactive charts: Monthly, Weekly, Daily, Hourly, 30-Minute plus Reuters data at Yahoo Finance and the ValueLine study.
 
The case for selling (the stock):
Sell recommendation
1. Earnings would suffer in a rising interest rate and falling PE-multiple environment.
2. Bottom-line rate of growth is expected to slow for 2005.
3. Reputation is under attack as overseas regulators are finding fault.
4. Client class action suit could be damaging.
 
The case against selling (the stock):
the case against selling
1. Earnings growth has been impressive and PEG (PE to Earnings Growth ratio) is only about 1x.
 
Trader Wizard's expectation for this trade:
Trader Wizard's expectation of this trade


1. With the C=MJ puts, I’m paying ~$0.75 time premium. I anticipate JPM to re-test its 52-week low of $42.99 base (-8.4%) within 60 to 90 days, and maybe lower, based on my technical studies plus a fair value price of 10.5 times earnings of $3.91 (my ttm est.) = $41.00 (-12.7%). I believe the January puts have a profit potential of between 100% and 200%.

 
Trader Wizard Profit & Loss:
Trader Wizard Profit & Loss


As soon as we can prepare an auto-updated system, this Ezine will present a calculation of P&L for individual trades and for all trades (both open and closed) for the prior 12 months.


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