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| BUY or SELL Recommendation on Citigroup |
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Citigroup (NYSE: C) Sept 17 close: $46.95
RECOMMENDATION: SELL
Strategy: Buy C=MJ January 2005 Puts Strike@50
Price to be calculated at the market open September 20 (C=MJ Sep-17 close @ $3.80)
OneChicago Single Stock Futures (C1C): C1C Z4 (Dec 04) $46.79
Among general reading, here is the material I used to make this decision: EasyStock Interactive charts: Monthly, Weekly, Daily, Hourly, 30-Minute plus Reuters data at Yahoo Finance and the ValueLine study.
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| The case for selling (the stock): |
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1. Earnings would suffer in a rising interest rate and falling PE-multiple environment.
2. Bottom-line rate of growth is expected to slow for 2005.
3. Reputation is under attack as overseas regulators are finding fault.
4. Client class action suit could be damaging.
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The case against selling (the stock):
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1. Earnings growth has been impressive and PEG (PE to Earnings Growth ratio) is only about 1x.
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Trader Wizard's expectation for this trade: |
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1. With the C=MJ puts, I’m paying ~$0.75 time premium. I anticipate JPM to re-test its 52-week low of $42.99 base (-8.4%) within 60 to 90 days, and maybe lower, based on my technical studies plus a fair value price of 10.5 times earnings of $3.91 (my ttm est.) = $41.00 (-12.7%). I believe the January puts have a profit potential of between 100% and 200%.
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Trader Wizard Profit & Loss: |
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As soon as we can prepare an auto-updated system, this Ezine will present a calculation of P&L for individual trades and for all trades (both open and closed) for the prior 12 months.
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